#9Seth Henigan

QB·Memphis·2024 2023 2022 20214.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Seth Henigan is a 4-year Dual-Threat QB for Memphis. Seth's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 541 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Seth Henigan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2021

★★★★★

3-Star · Developmental

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.8500
National rank: #1,188
High school: Denton Ryan
Hometown: Denton, TX

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2024 Production

Passing

309/477 Comp/Att3502 Pass yards25 Pass TD6 INT64.8% Comp %

Rushing

190 Rush yards1 Rush TD80 Carries2.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat80
Consistency85
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs UAB (SP+ -11).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorth Alabama	W40-0	—	22/30	308	2	0	84.0	0	0	0.56
2	vsTroy	W38-17	-6.6	20/30	161	1	0	82.8	24	0	0.23
3	@Florida State	W20-12	-3.2	25/38	272	2	1	71.1	-7	0	0.30
4	@Navy	L44-56	3.5	32/56	371	2	1	53.2	29	0	0.25
5	vsMiddle Tennessee	W24-7	-24.4	26/41	227	0	0	38.6	14	0	0.12
7	vsSouth Florida	W21-3	-2.3	28/40	208	2	1	53.0	26	0	0.13
8	vsNorth Texas	W52-44	-4.5	24/38	319	1	0	52.4	9	1	0.38
9	vsCharlotte	W33-28	-15.3	20/32	212	2	1	40.9	-10	0	0.19
10	@UTSA	L36-44	2.2	35/52	454	4	1	49.2	8	0	0.31
11	vsRice	W27-20	-11.4	14/31	159	1	1	36.9	18	0	0.21
12	vsUAB	W53-18	-11.3	23/34	299	4	0	63.2	8	0	0.63
14	@Tulane	W34-24	5.7	22/29	218	2	0	80.2	10	0	0.42
20	vsWest Virginia	W42-37	2.1	18/26	294	2	0	90.2	61	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.2%

Passing plays

99.8%

Rushing plays

14.3%

Standard downs

52.9%

Passing downs

77.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2024 · 50 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Memphis	7.6	0.500	—	229.5
2022	Memphis	3.4	0.340	-0.16	200.8
2023	Memphis	9.9	0.519	+0.18	288.8
2024	Memphis	4.8	0.373	-0.15	203.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.