#7Sam Howell

QB·North Carolina·2021 2020 201911.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sam Howell is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for North Carolina. Sam's 2020 season ranks in the 78th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 429 plays — a above-average rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Howell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2019

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9582
National rank: #93
High school: Sun Valley
Hometown: Monroe, NC

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2020 Production

Passing

237/348 Comp/Att3586 Pass yards30 Pass TD7 INT68.1% Comp %

Rushing

146 Rush yards5 Rush TD92 Carries1.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency78
Volume100
Dual-Threat80
Consistency88
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)78th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (78th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Virginia Tech (SP+ 14).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsSyracuse	W31-6	-9.8	25/34	295	1	2	12	0	0.43
5	@Boston College	W26-22	0.9	14/26	225	2	1	-1	0	0.31
6	vsVirginia Tech	W56-45	13.7	18/23	257	3	0	19	0	0.80
7	@Florida State	L28-31	-4.9	20/36	374	3	1	0	0	0.12
8	vsNC State	W48-21	0.0	18/29	252	1	0	12	1	0.40
9	@Virginia	L41-44	0.9	23/28	443	4	0	-25	0	0.61
10	@Duke	W56-24	-4.2	18/27	235	3	1	35	1	0.54
11	vsWake Forest	W59-53	0.8	32/45	550	6	1	21	1	0.73
13	vsNotre Dame	L17-31	21.0	17/27	211	1	0	2	1	0.32
14	vsWestern Carolina	W49-9	—	20/23	287	2	0	41	0	0.68
15	@Miami	W62-26	12.8	14/19	223	1	0	5	1	0.67
1	vsTexas A&M	L27-41	16.2	18/31	234	3	1	25	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.0%

Passing plays

97.9%

Rushing plays

13.4%

Standard downs

44.6%

Passing downs

72.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.71
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.50 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2021 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	North Carolina	12.9	0.580	—	316.3
2020	North Carolina	11.3	0.581	+0.00	263.9
2021	North Carolina	7.8	0.480	-0.10	270.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.