#11Sam Ehlinger

QB·Texas·2020 2019 201810.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sam Ehlinger is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Texas. Sam's 2018 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 582 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Ehlinger's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

274/424 Comp/Att3294 Pass yards25 Pass TD5 INT64.6% Comp %

Rushing

482 Rush yards16 Rush TD164 Carries2.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

5 Receptions51 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency88
Clutch99

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.57 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs West Virginia (SP+ 13).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMaryland	L29-34	3.0	21/39	263	2	2	30	0	0.14
2	vsTulsa	W28-21	-11.2	21/27	237	2	0	51	1	0.31
3	vsUSC	W37-14	9.7	15/33	223	2	0	35	1	0.28
4	vsTCU	W31-16	6.9	22/32	255	2	0	11	1	0.41
5	@Kansas State	W19-14	-0.5	29/36	207	1	0	26	0	0.38
6	vsOklahoma	W48-45	24.9	24/35	314	2	0	72	3	0.51
7	vsBaylor	W23-17	2.0	4/5	35	0	0	5	0	0.34
9	@Oklahoma State	L35-38	13.8	22/42	283	2	0	47	2	0.43
10	vsWest Virginia	L41-42	13.2	24/35	356	3	0	52	1	0.57
11	@Texas Tech	W41-34	8.7	22/34	312	4	0	14	0	0.48
12	vsIowa State	W24-10	7.9	12/15	137	1	0	32	1	0.42
13	@Kansas	W24-17	-10.0	16/28	154	2	2	1	1	0.06
14	vsOklahoma	L27-39	24.9	23/36	349	2	1	42	2	0.55
1	vsGeorgia	W28-21	32.9	19/27	169	0	0	64	3	0.26

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.9%

Passing plays

90.1%

Rushing plays

26.3%

Standard downs

52.2%

Passing downs

64.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.41

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Texas	10.0	0.487	—	309.0
2019	Texas	13.2	0.535	+0.05	349.0
2020	Texas	9.1	0.480	-0.06	222.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.