#15Ryan Finley

QB·NC State·2018 2017 20169.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Ryan Finley is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for NC State. Ryan's 2017 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 544 plays — a average rate for the QB. Ryan's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ryan Finley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

311/478 Comp/Att3514 Pass yards17 Pass TD6 INT65.1% Comp %

Rushing

194 Rush yards3 Rush TD69 Carries2.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency53
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency86
Clutch91

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Louisville (SP+ 19).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Carolina	L28-35	7.8	45/64	415	2	0	76.2	-22	1	0.31
2	vsMarshall	W37-20	-4.5	29/36	341	3	0	91.8	42	0	0.55
3	vsFurman	W49-16	—	22/27	231	1	0	91.4	-6	0	0.46
4	@Florida State	W27-21	22.8	22/32	230	2	0	81.0	—	—	0.49
5	vsSyracuse	W33-25	4.0	20/33	186	1	0	74.4	37	0	0.35
6	vsLouisville	W39-25	19.2	20/31	367	1	0	82.2	19	0	0.65
7	@Pittsburgh	W35-17	6.0	14/25	198	1	0	53.7	10	0	0.33
9	@Notre Dame	L14-35	20.8	17/37	213	1	1	26.1	-21	0	0.02
10	vsClemson	L31-38	26.4	31/50	338	3	2	64.9	35	0	0.33
11	@Boston College	W17-14	4.6	13/32	146	0	1	39.4	39	0	0.04
12	@Wake Forest	L24-30	10.5	34/52	327	1	1	82.7	35	0	0.29
13	vsNorth Carolina	W33-21	4.3	20/30	204	0	1	52.4	27	2	0.37
1	vsArizona State	W52-31	1.0	24/29	318	1	0	91.0	-1	0	0.53

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.2%

Passing plays

98.8%

Rushing plays

11.8%

Standard downs

46.7%

Passing downs

73.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.46

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	NC State	6.0	0.424	—	189.4
2017	NC State	9.2	0.471	+0.05	253.8
2018	NC State	8.4	0.500	+0.03	233.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.