#12Peyton Ramsey

QB·Indiana·2020 20184.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Peyton Ramsey is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Indiana. Peyton's 2018 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 543 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Peyton Ramsey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

294/446 Comp/Att2870 Pass yards19 Pass TD13 INT65.9% Comp %

Rushing

354 Rush yards5 Rush TD111 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat75
Consistency79
Clutch99

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.41 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Rutgers (SP+ -12).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Florida International	W38-28	-7.4	20/27	156	3	1	36	0	0.28
2	vsVirginia	W20-16	7.1	16/22	150	2	1	27	0	0.33
3	vsBall State	W38-10	-18.9	20/27	173	0	0	43	1	0.14
4	vsMichigan State	L21-35	11.5	32/46	272	2	2	13	0	-0.04
5	@Rutgers	W24-17	-12.3	27/40	288	1	1	51	1	0.41
6	@Ohio State	L26-49	24.1	26/49	322	3	0	10	0	0.01
7	vsIowa	L16-42	13.3	31/42	263	1	2	9	1	0.01
8	vsPenn State	L28-33	19.0	25/35	231	1	1	-5	0	0.23
9	@Minnesota	L31-38	6.3	29/44	232	2	2	57	0	0.20
11	vsMaryland	W34-32	3.0	16/28	243	2	1	25	1	0.30
12	@Michigan	L20-31	22.0	16/35	195	1	1	51	0	0.33
13	vsPurdue	L21-28	6.5	36/51	345	1	1	37	1	0.19

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.3%

Passing plays

93.2%

Rushing plays

21.7%

Standard downs

54.9%

Passing downs

73.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.08
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.18 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Indiana	4.5	0.360	—	208.8
2020	Northwestern	3.4	0.363	+0.00	138.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.