What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.42Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.04Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.46Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Patrick Overmyer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2026 Production
Air yards
Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.
The ball travels 10.2 yards in the air on an average target — 1.3 yards deeper than the median. Another 6.5 comes after the catch.
Where he is targeted
targets · completion rate · yardsDepth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.
Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs TE peers
- Efficiency100
- Volume25
- Explosiveness37
- Consistency50
- Pass-Down100
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Oregon State (SP+ -7).
NIL Market Tier· 2026
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.38
- Passing downs
- 1.73
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.72 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).