#12Nathan Rourke

QB·Ohio·2019 2018 20177.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Nathan Rourke is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Ohio. Nathan's 2017 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 390 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nathan Rourke's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

161/292 Comp/Att2203 Pass yards17 Pass TD7 INT55.1% Comp %

Rushing

912 Rush yards21 Rush TD137 Carries6.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency55
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency86
Clutch30

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs UAB.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsHampton	W59-0	—	6/10	72	0	0	95.6	50	3	0.61
2	@Purdue	L21-44	5.8	16/23	211	1	0	73.3	36	0	—
3	vsKansas	W42-30	-14.8	11/16	152	2	0	82.3	-3	1	0.61
4	@Eastern Michigan	W27-20	-5.3	19/31	197	2	0	71.0	-9	0	-0.04
5	@Massachusetts	W58-50	-9.7	13/24	181	2	0	93.1	118	2	0.51
6	vsCentral Michigan	L23-26	-8.6	17/31	160	0	1	60.4	105	3	0.29
7	@Bowling Green	W48-30	-10.0	7/22	105	1	2	63.5	143	3	0.43
8	vsKent State	W48-3	-20.2	8/17	132	2	0	63.0	59	1	0.38
10	vsMiami (OH)	W45-28	-2.2	21/33	294	3	0	91.4	54	3	0.56
11	vsToledo	W38-10	6.6	7/15	139	1	1	66.9	115	1	0.41
12	@Akron	L34-37	-17.6	9/22	110	0	2	74.5	165	2	0.16
13	@Buffalo	L24-31	-11.2	15/30	265	1	1	64.4	49	2	0.40
1	vsUAB	W41-6	—	12/18	185	2	0	94.2	30	0	0.70

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.6%

Passing plays

93.1%

Rushing plays

23.0%

Standard downs

40.8%

Passing downs

68.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.40
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / 0.77

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2019 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Ohio	7.2	0.475	—	198.0
2018	Ohio	8.6	0.526	+0.05	226.0
2019	Ohio	6.8	0.455	-0.07	219.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.