#7Max Johnson

QB·LSU·20217.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Max Johnson is a Dual-Threat QB for LSU. Max's 2021 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 420 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Max Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

225/373 Comp/Att2815 Pass yards27 Pass TD6 INT60.3% Comp %

Rushing

-41 Rush yards1 Rush TD78 Carries-0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Dual-Threat59
Consistency70
Clutch92

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.97 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Kentucky (SP+ 13).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@UCLA	L27-38	9.4	26/46	330	3	1	56.4	16	0	0.33
2	vsMcNeese	W34-7	—	18/27	162	3	0	43.8	0	0	0.29
3	vsCentral Michigan	W49-21	-1.0	26/35	372	5	1	96.2	4	0	0.84
4	@Mississippi State	W28-25	10.5	17/27	280	4	1	82.5	-10	0	0.49
5	vsAuburn	L19-24	11.0	26/46	325	1	1	59.4	10	0	0.06
6	@Kentucky	L21-42	13.4	22/38	261	1	0	32.1	-23	0	0.97
7	vsFlorida	W49-42	11.0	14/24	133	3	0	63.7	8	0	0.32
8	@Ole Miss	L17-31	14.8	13/21	146	0	1	55.6	-8	0	0.04
10	@Alabama	L14-20	26.0	16/32	160	2	1	37.1	-15	0	-0.06
11	vsArkansas	L13-16	13.8	3/6	21	0	0	41.1	1	0	-0.14
12	vsUL Monroe	W27-14	-20.3	22/33	319	2	0	63.2	-15	1	0.57
13	vsTexas A&M	W27-24	21.1	22/38	306	3	0	76.1	-9	0	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.2%

Passing plays

85.8%

Rushing plays

11.7%

Standard downs

45.8%

Passing downs

65.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.