#17Matthew Henry

WR·Western Kentucky·2025

Matthew Henry is a Slot Specialist WR for Western Kentucky. Matthew's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 74 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Matthew Henry's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

55 Receptions888 Rec yards6 Rec TD16.1 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns52 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume24
Explosiveness61
Consistency79
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.16 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.00 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Middle Tennessee (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
0	vsSam Houston	W41-24	-27.8	7	148	21.1	1	55	—
1	vsNorth Alabama	W55-6	—	2	41	20.5	1	27	1.04
2	@Toledo	L21-45	6.0	2	9	4.5	1	7	0.47
4	vsNevada	W31-16	-13.4	1	7	7.0	0	7	-0.22
5	@Missouri State	W27-22	-10.7	5	73	14.6	0	34	1.00
6	@Delaware	W27-24	-10.9	4	99	24.8	0	48	1.38
8	vsFlorida International	L6-25	-10.5	2	58	29.0	0	46	1.30
9	@Louisiana Tech	W28-27	-1.3	5	52	10.4	0	17	0.13
10	vsNew Mexico State	W35-16	-15.5	7	81	11.6	2	25	0.82
12	vsMiddle Tennessee	W42-26	-16.0	7	135	19.3	1	37	2.00
13	@LSU	L10-13	10.3	3	16	5.3	0	7	0.47
14	@Jacksonville State	L34-37	-6.7	3	43	14.3	0	22	1.01
20	vsSouthern Miss	W27-16	-7.1	7	126	18.0	0	46	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

8.4%

Passing plays

14.5%

Rushing plays

0.8%

Standard downs

6.6%

Passing downs

12.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.52
Passing downs: 1.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.06 / -0.93

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).