#27Marcellous Hawkins

RB·Virginia Tech·2025

Marcellous Hawkins is a Explosive Back for Virginia Tech. Marcellous's 2025 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 129 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marcellous Hawkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

749 Rush yards1 Rush TD118 Carries6.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

12 Receptions74 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency15
Volume52
Explosiveness66
Consistency40
Receiving47

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency40th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.48 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs NC State (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Carolina	L11-24	5.9	15	58	3.9	0	—	—	—	0.05
2	vsVanderbilt	L20-44	20.3	8	29	3.6	0	2	10	0	0.02
3	vsOld Dominion	L26-45	5.9	4	21	5.3	0	4	12	0	-0.24
4	vsWofford	W38-6	—	13	79	6.1	0	2	27	0	-0.11
5	@NC State	W23-21	4.8	4	47	11.8	0	1	11	1	1.48
6	vsWake Forest	L23-30	5.7	11	48	4.4	1	—	—	—	0.06
7	@Georgia Tech	L20-35	9.3	9	82	9.1	0	—	—	—	0.48
9	vsCalifornia	W42-34	-3.2	21	167	8.0	0	—	—	—	0.44
10	vsLouisville	L16-28	12.4	13	45	3.5	0	1	12	0	-0.02
12	@Florida State	L14-34	7.2	12	101	8.4	0	1	-5	0	0.15
13	vsMiami	L17-34	20.7	8	72	9.0	0	1	7	0	0.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.3%

Passing plays

4.7%

Rushing plays

30.0%

Standard downs

22.4%

Passing downs

9.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.71
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).