#4Maddux Madsen

QB·Boise State·20247.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Maddux Madsen is a Dual-Threat QB for Boise State. Maddux's 2024 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 434 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Maddux Madsen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

247/396 Comp/Att3018 Pass yards23 Pass TD6 INT62.4% Comp %

Rushing

221 Rush yards5 Rush TD57 Carries3.9 Yards/carry

Air yards

Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.

Attempts

7.3y

Avg depth

5.0y

After catch

50%

Catch rate

The ball travels 7.3 yards in the air on an average throw — 0.5 yards shorter than the median. Another 5.0 comes after the catch.

Where he throws

attempts · completion rate · yards

deep

—

0% · 0y

short

64% · 89y

33% · 7y

46% · 72y

leftmiddleright

Depth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency63
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency80
Clutch27

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs San Diego State (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Georgia Southern	W56-45	-1.7	22/31	280	1	1	69.2	—	—	0.54
2	@Oregon	L34-37	26.0	17/40	148	1	0	57.4	7	0	0.03
4	vsPortland State	W56-14	—	13/18	188	3	0	79.1	12	1	0.71
5	vsWashington State	W45-24	1.3	12/21	184	2	1	42.9	20	0	0.60
6	vsUtah State	W62-30	-10.4	21/25	256	3	0	92.6	-5	0	0.80
7	@Hawai'i	W28-7	-10.9	17/25	217	2	0	78.1	4	0	0.60
9	@UNLV	W29-24	9.3	18/33	209	1	0	84.5	58	1	0.42
10	vsSan Diego State	W56-24	-15.4	24/32	307	4	0	98.0	25	0	0.96
11	vsNevada	W28-21	-15.2	9/20	119	1	1	55.6	58	0	0.18
12	@San José State	W42-21	-5.5	22/30	286	1	0	87.9	5	1	0.65
13	@Wyoming	W17-13	-13.6	14/26	167	0	0	18.2	-6	0	-0.11
14	vsOregon State	W34-18	-6.7	17/33	195	2	0	64.1	37	1	0.28
15	vsUNLV	W21-7	9.3	18/27	158	1	0	83.5	9	1	0.23
20	vsPenn State	L14-31	24.6	23/35	304	1	3	86.2	-3	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.5%

Passing plays

95.0%

Rushing plays

8.4%

Standard downs

37.3%

Passing downs

68.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.47
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.69

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.