#4Luke Falk

QB·Washington State·2016 20156.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Luke Falk is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Washington State. Luke's 2015 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 713 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Luke Falk's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

448/645 Comp/Att4566 Pass yards38 Pass TD8 INT69.5% Comp %

Rushing

-115 Rush yards3 Rush TD82 Carries-1.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency3
Volume100
Dual-Threat5
Consistency83
Clutch97

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.48 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Arizona (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsPortland State	L17-24	—	27/41	289	2	0	64.3	8	0	0.28
2	@Rutgers	W37-34	-10.1	47/66	478	4	0	68.6	29	0	0.32
3	vsWyoming	W31-14	-16.7	37/45	303	2	1	62.8	-22	1	0.29
5	@California	L28-34	12.1	35/49	389	2	1	66.4	-25	1	0.16
6	@Oregon	W45-38	15.9	50/74	505	5	0	58.5	-49	1	0.24
7	vsOregon State	W52-31	-10.1	39/50	407	6	2	86.6	-19	0	0.45
8	@Arizona	W45-42	4.7	47/62	514	5	0	86.1	16	0	0.48
9	vsStanford	L28-30	22.8	35/61	354	2	2	40.8	-7	0	0.22
10	vsArizona State	W38-24	10.2	36/55	497	5	1	70.5	-24	0	0.43
11	@UCLA	W31-27	18.6	38/53	331	2	1	62.3	-17	0	0.14
12	vsColorado	W27-3	-4.0	27/35	199	1	0	79.7	-4	0	-0.01
1	vsMiami	W20-14	11.0	30/54	300	2	0	51.8	-1	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

73.8%

Passing plays

94.8%

Rushing plays

19.7%

Standard downs

69.5%

Passing downs

83.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / -0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Washington State	6.4	0.370	—	245.3
2016	Washington State	10.1	0.470	+0.10	282.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.