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Lawrence Arnold
Lawrence Arnold

#2Lawrence Arnold

WR·Kansas·2024

Lawrence Arnold is a Versatile WR for Kansas.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Lawrence Arnold's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
26 Receptions360 Rec yards1 Rec TD13.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume12
  • Explosiveness46
  • Consistency78
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.27 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Baylor (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.270−2.27Wk 1 vs Lindenwood: +1.92 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Illinois: +1.33 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs UNLV: +0.97 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs West Virginia: +2.12 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs TCU: +0.36 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Arizona State: +0.10 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs Houston: +1.92 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Kansas State: +0.94 EPA/play9Wk 12 vs BYU: +0.01 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Colorado: +0.25 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Baylor: +2.27 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsLindenwoodW48-3—22914.50221.92
2@IllinoisL17-239.644411.01181.33
3vsUNLVL20-239.345814.50290.97
4@West VirginiaL28-322.124623.00362.12
5vsTCUL27-3810.833210.70130.36
6@Arizona StateL31-359.4155.0050.10
8vsHoustonW42-14-8.248020.00401.92
9@Kansas StateL27-2914.13248.00120.94
12@BYUW17-1315.311010.00100.01
13vsColoradoW37-218.111010.00100.25
14@BaylorL17-458.412222.00222.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
4.2%
Passing plays
9.6%
Rushing plays
0.5%
Standard downs
4.3%
Passing downs
4.1%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.98
Passing downs
1.43
Pass / Rush EPA
1.10 / 1.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.