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Kris Mitchell
Kris Mitchell

#10Kris Mitchell

WR·Florida International·2023

Kris Mitchell is a Versatile WR for Florida International. Kris's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 69 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kris Mitchell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
64 Receptions1118 Rec yards7 Rec TD17.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume28
  • Explosiveness70
  • Consistency85
  • Pass-Down37
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.48 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.83 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs UConn (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.830−2.83Wk 1 vs Maine: +1.36 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs North Texas: +1.38 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs UConn: +2.83 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Liberty: +2.03 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs New Mexico State: +0.72 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs UTEP: +1.62 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Sam Houston: +0.04 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Jacksonville State: +1.65 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Middle Tennessee: +1.50 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Arkansas: +1.21 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Western Kentucky: +1.07 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
0@Louisiana TechL17-22-12.9122.002—
1vsMaineW14-12—920122.32621.36
2vsNorth TexasW46-39-6.779413.41381.38
3@UConnW24-17-15.627336.51642.83
4vsLibertyL6-388.048922.30482.03
6@New Mexico StateL17-34-1.889111.40400.72
7vsUTEPL14-27-16.248621.50301.62
8@Sam HoustonW33-27-13.88759.41250.04
9vsJacksonville StateL16-41-1.6510921.81601.65
11@Middle TennesseeL6-40-9.522512.50161.50
12@ArkansasL20-443.5615726.21801.21
13vsWestern KentuckyL28-41-2.0811614.50291.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
9.8%
Passing plays
17.0%
Rushing plays
1.2%
Standard downs
9.3%
Passing downs
10.6%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.17
Passing downs
1.09
Pass / Rush EPA
1.11 / 1.62

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.