KJ Jefferson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Arkansas. KJ's 2022 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 441 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.
What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So KJ Jefferson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2022 Production
Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency80
- Volume100
- Dual-Threat87
- Consistency89
- Clutch100
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (80th percentile).
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.72 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Auburn (SP+ 5).
NIL Market Tier· 2022
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.33
- Passing downs
- 0.66
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.50 / 0.33
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.