#5Kaleb Eleby

QB·Western Michigan·2021 202013.3 pts line value1st Round

Kaleb Eleby is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Western Michigan. Kaleb's 2020 season ranks in the 95th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 179 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kaleb Eleby's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

97/151 Comp/Att1700 Pass yards18 Pass TD2 INT64.2% Comp %

Rushing

38 Rush yards4 Rush TD34 Carries1.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency95
Volume100
Dual-Threat65
Consistency84
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)95th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.48 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.34 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Central Michigan (SP+ -2).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
10	@Akron	W58-13	-23.7	12/16	262	3	0	6	0	0.89
11	vsToledo	W41-38	-3.6	20/29	284	3	0	-2	2	0.47
12	@Central Michigan	W52-44	-1.8	12/20	382	5	1	6	1	1.34
13	vsNorthern Illinois	W30-27	-18.4	12/24	210	1	0	7	1	0.36
14	vsEastern Michigan	L42-53	-12.2	18/26	288	4	0	2	0	0.53
15	@Ball State	L27-30	-6.7	23/36	274	2	1	19	0	0.36

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.3%

Passing plays

97.5%

Rushing plays

12.6%

Standard downs

39.8%

Passing downs

70.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: 0.95
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.66 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 19 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Western Michigan	13.3	0.669	—	138.4
2021	Western Michigan	8.0	0.536	-0.13	237.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.