#21Justin Jackson

RB·Northwestern·2017 20162.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Justin Jackson is a 2-year Featured Back for Northwestern. Justin's 2016 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 348 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Jackson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1524 Rush yards15 Rush TD298 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

35 Receptions219 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Explosiveness42
Consistency0
Receiving53

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.49 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Illinois (SP+ -7).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Jeremy McNichols	Boise State	2016	340	0.330	4.7	112.2
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	EPA/play
1	vsWestern Michigan	L21-22	11.5	23	124	5.4	3	2	47	0.48
2	vsIllinois State	L7-9	—	12	42	3.5	0	1	5	-0.10
3	vsDuke	W24-13	-2.8	28	94	3.4	0	1	-3	-0.17
4	vsNebraska	L13-24	10.3	20	79	4.0	0	3	18	-0.01
5	@Iowa	W38-31	10.3	26	171	6.6	1	3	13	0.15
7	@Michigan State	W54-40	7.4	34	188	5.5	2	4	10	0.13
8	vsIndiana	W24-14	4.6	28	94	3.4	0	5	34	-0.04
9	@Ohio State	L20-24	22.4	17	76	4.5	0	3	21	-0.07
10	vsWisconsin	L7-21	16.1	13	42	3.2	0	1	1	-0.50
11	@Purdue	W45-17	-11.0	22	127	5.8	2	1	8	0.43
12	@Minnesota	L12-29	12.6	22	90	4.1	1	8	51	-0.14
13	vsIllinois	W42-21	-6.7	21	173	8.2	3	1	5	0.49
1	vsPittsburgh	W31-24	13.1	32	224	7.0	3	2	9	0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

35.2%

Passing plays

10.2%

Rushing plays

64.3%

Standard downs

39.8%

Passing downs

26.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.05
Passing downs: 0.16
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.01 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Northwestern	2.5	0.260	—	77.7
2017	Northwestern	0.7	0.160	-0.10	49.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.