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Jalen Moss
Jalen Moss

#18Jalen Moss

WR·Fresno State·2024

Jalen Moss is a Versatile WR for Fresno State. Jalen's 2024 season produced 47.0 total EPA across 46 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jalen Moss's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
49 Receptions582 Rec yards4 Rec TD11.9 Yards/rec
Returns
15 Kick returns228 KR yards0 KR TD18 Punt returns215 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume19
  • Explosiveness33
  • Consistency75
  • Pass-Down71
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.57 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.41 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -19).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.410−2.41Wk 1 vs Michigan: +1.93 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Sacramento State: +1.34 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs New Mexico State: +2.41 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs New Mexico: +1.06 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs UNLV: +1.23 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs Washington State: -0.14 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Nevada: -0.21 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs San José State: +1.82 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Hawai'i: +0.24 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Air Force: +1.01 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs Colorado State: +1.59 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs UCLA: -0.03 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1@MichiganL10-3010.669716.20281.93
2vsSacramento StateW46-30—67612.70231.34
3vsNew Mexico StateW48-0-19.014949.00492.41
4@New MexicoW38-21-14.834013.30221.06
5@UNLVL14-599.367612.70201.23
7vsWashington StateL17-251.33206.7013-0.14
8@NevadaW24-21-15.2273.504-0.21
9vsSan José StateW33-10-5.568514.22431.82
10vsHawai'iL20-21-10.94215.3070.24
11@Air ForceL28-36-11.767512.51321.01
13vsColorado StateW28-22-5.722211.01151.59
14@UCLAL13-20-1.34143.505-0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
6.8%
Passing plays
11.9%
Rushing plays
0.3%
Standard downs
5.7%
Passing downs
9.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.97
Passing downs
1.09
Pass / Rush EPA
1.04 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.