#12Holton Ahlers

QB·East Carolina·2022 2021 20197.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Holton Ahlers is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for East Carolina. Holton's 2019 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 505 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Holton Ahlers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

264/442 Comp/Att3387 Pass yards21 Pass TD10 INT59.7% Comp %

Rushing

359 Rush yards6 Rush TD108 Carries3.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency40
Volume100
Dual-Threat58
Consistency79
Clutch82

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.24 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs SMU (SP+ 4).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@NC State	L6-34	-6.3	22/39	168	0	1	23.2	11	0	-0.01
2	vsGardner-Webb	W48-9	—	18/29	195	1	1	88.3	78	2	0.31
3	@Navy	L10-42	9.9	11/23	138	0	1	45.1	36	1	0.23
4	vsWilliam & Mary	W19-7	—	20/34	210	1	0	37.7	60	0	0.11
5	@Old Dominion	W24-21	-24.4	8/21	202	2	2	14.5	1	0	0.24
6	vsTemple	L17-27	3.2	19/39	229	2	0	38.4	26	0	0.18
8	@UCF	L28-41	19.1	23/37	313	1	1	57.6	47	1	0.21
9	vsSouth Florida	L20-45	-9.8	18/28	217	0	1	26.5	-3	0	0.25
10	vsCincinnati	L43-46	9.1	32/52	535	4	1	—	21	1	0.51
11	@SMU	L51-59	4.4	32/42	498	6	0	—	25	0	0.85
13	@UConn	W31-24	-24.4	34/50	374	1	2	—	22	1	0.39
14	vsTulsa	L24-49	-2.5	27/48	308	3	0	—	35	0	0.30

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.5%

Passing plays

98.1%

Rushing plays

21.3%

Standard downs

50.0%

Passing downs

76.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2022 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	East Carolina	7.9	0.467	—	227.3
2021	East Carolina	7.1	0.467	—	238.5
2022	East Carolina	8.2	0.461	-0.01	251.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.