#9Hank Bachmeier

QB·Boise State·20218.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Hank Bachmeier is a Dual-Threat QB for Boise State. Hank's 2021 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 444 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Hank Bachmeier's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

252/401 Comp/Att3079 Pass yards20 Pass TD8 INT62.8% Comp %

Rushing

-20 Rush yards0 Rush TD60 Carries-0.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency45
Volume100
Dual-Threat96
Consistency88
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UTEP (SP+ -4).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
1	@UCF	L31-36	4.8	25/39	263	2	1	75.1	-7	0.32
2	vsUTEP	W54-13	-4.2	17/24	340	2	0	92.7	-1	0.71
3	vsOklahoma State	L20-21	17.2	22/34	242	1	1	77.7	-2	0.41
4	@Utah State	W27-3	0.1	22/39	286	2	1	80.0	44	0.40
5	vsNevada	L31-41	3.6	34/47	388	4	1	71.1	-49	0.44
6	@BYU	W26-17	8.9	18/29	172	0	0	64.6	3	0.19
7	vsAir Force	L17-24	7.4	23/36	259	1	1	50.3	-4	0.22
9	@Colorado State	W28-19	-2.4	21/32	253	3	0	81.2	-7	0.54
10	@Fresno State	W40-14	10.8	15/27	283	1	0	80.9	8	0.40
11	vsWyoming	W23-13	0.6	23/32	225	1	0	60.7	-8	0.36
12	vsNew Mexico	W37-0	-18.6	11/22	146	1	1	17.3	3	0.22
13	@San Diego State	L16-27	8.3	21/40	222	2	2	52.8	0	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.8%

Passing plays

96.0%

Rushing plays

9.0%

Standard downs

47.8%

Passing downs

63.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.65
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.