#15Drew Allar

QB·Penn State·2024 20237.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Drew Allar is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Penn State. Drew's 2023 season ranks in the 28th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 447 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Drew Allar's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

233/388 Comp/Att2631 Pass yards25 Pass TD2 INT60.1% Comp %

Rushing

210 Rush yards4 Rush TD74 Carries2.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency28
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency86
Clutch70

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)28th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Maryland (SP+ 11).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWest Virginia	W38-15	7.5	21/29	325	3	0	86.6	1	0	0.60
2	vsDelaware	W63-7	—	22/26	204	1	0	78.5	27	1	0.45
3	@Illinois	W30-13	-2.5	16/33	208	0	0	66.6	24	0	0.24
4	vsIowa	W31-0	5.8	25/37	166	4	0	84.8	22	0	0.39
5	@Northwestern	W41-13	-1.3	18/33	189	1	0	40.7	4	1	0.19
7	vsMassachusetts	W63-0	-17.5	16/23	162	3	0	70.6	1	1	0.45
8	@Ohio State	L12-20	25.2	18/42	191	1	0	29.4	-23	0	-0.01
9	vsIndiana	W33-24	-7.4	20/31	210	3	1	57.2	5	0	0.37
10	@Maryland	W51-15	11.0	25/34	240	4	0	96.9	39	0	0.63
11	vsMichigan	L15-24	31.3	10/22	70	1	0	56.7	49	1	0.29
12	vsRutgers	W27-6	3.5	6/13	79	0	0	82.6	28	0	0.47
13	vsMichigan State	W42-0	-6.8	17/26	292	2	0	79.9	-7	0	0.54
20	vsOle Miss	L25-38	18.4	19/39	295	2	1	72.8	40	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.0%

Passing plays

94.5%

Rushing plays

11.7%

Standard downs

42.5%

Passing downs

70.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.71

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2024 · 29 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	Penn State	7.5	0.503	—	229.2
2024	Penn State	8.0	0.505	+0.00	262.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.