#14Donovan Brown

WR·San Diego State·2025

Donovan Brown is a Versatile WR for San Diego State. Donovan's 2025 season ranks in the 67th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 64 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Donovan Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

33 Receptions518 Rec yards2 Rec TD15.7 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns68 KR yards0 KR TD

Air yards

Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.

Targets

14.6y

Avg depth

3.0y

After catch

38%

Catch rate

The ball travels 14.6 yards in the air on an average target — 5.7 yards deeper than the median. Another 3.0 comes after the catch.

Where he is targeted

targets · completion rate · yards

deep

0% · 0y

—

0% · 0y

short

—

0% · 0y

60% · 24y

leftmiddleright

Depth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency67
Volume23
Explosiveness58
Consistency38
Pass-Down0

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)67th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency38th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.04 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Nevada (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsStony Brook	W42-0	—	2	48	24.0	0	44	-0.19
2	@Washington State	L13-36	3.8	3	-5	-1.7	0	0	-0.54
5	@Northern Illinois	W6-3	-16.7	5	42	8.4	0	13	0.39
6	vsColorado State	W45-24	-15.6	2	55	27.5	1	45	0.82
7	@Nevada	W44-10	-13.4	4	58	14.5	0	30	1.04
9	@Fresno State	W23-0	1.8	1	11	11.0	0	11	0.04
10	vsWyoming	W24-7	-11.3	2	51	25.5	0	40	0.48
11	@Hawai'i	L6-38	1.7	3	60	20.0	0	45	0.86
12	vsBoise State	W17-7	3.1	1	1	1.0	0	1	-0.76
13	vsSan José State	W25-3	-14.3	2	63	31.5	0	52	0.23
14	@New Mexico	L17-23	0.9	5	91	18.2	1	46	0.59
20	vsNorth Texas	L47-49	13.8	3	43	14.3	0	22	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

8.1%

Passing plays

21.6%

Rushing plays

0.6%

Standard downs

7.6%

Passing downs

9.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: -0.11
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / -0.61

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).