#20DK Billingsley

RB·Troy·20192.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

DK Billingsley is a Explosive Back for Troy. DK's 2019 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 188 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So DK Billingsley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

901 Rush yards10 Rush TD155 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions211 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency55
Volume61
Explosiveness56
Consistency63
Receiving65

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.16 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Georgia State (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCampbell	W43-14	—	12	86	7.2	2	1	14	0	0.60
3	vsSouthern Miss	L42-47	-4.8	9	41	4.6	1	2	20	0	0.10
4	@Akron	W35-7	-29.8	22	100	4.5	1	—	—	—	0.27
5	vsArkansas State	L43-50	-2.9	20	103	5.2	0	5	9	0	0.09
6	@Missouri	L10-42	7.8	8	22	2.8	0	1	5	0	-0.22
8	vsSouth Alabama	W37-13	-20.3	20	100	5.0	0	2	15	0	0.30
9	@Georgia State	L33-52	-10.5	9	81	9.0	3	2	18	0	0.90
10	@Coastal Carolina	L35-36	-12.8	14	83	5.9	0	1	7	0	0.14
11	vsGeorgia Southern	W49-28	-4.5	14	163	11.6	2	3	28	0	0.68
12	@Texas State	W63-27	-16.2	12	40	3.3	0	2	10	0	-0.26
13	@Louisiana	L3-53	9.6	10	68	6.8	0	2	37	0	0.45
14	vsApp State	L13-48	11.3	5	14	2.8	1	4	48	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.4%

Passing plays

7.6%

Rushing plays

40.8%

Standard downs

24.4%

Passing downs

13.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.63
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 36 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.