#13Devin Leary

QB·NC State·20218.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Devin Leary is a Clutch Passer for NC State. Devin's 2021 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 466 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Devin Leary's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

283/431 Comp/Att3433 Pass yards35 Pass TD5 INT65.7% Comp %

Rushing

-73 Rush yards2 Rush TD54 Carries-1.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency43
Volume100
Dual-Threat21
Consistency82
Clutch71

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.72 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Boston College (SP+ 1).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Florida	W45-0	-12.1	17/26	232	2	1	51.0	1	0	0.51
2	@Mississippi State	L10-24	10.5	30/49	303	1	1	57.1	-14	0	0.14
3	vsFurman	W45-7	—	23/29	259	3	0	87.2	7	1	0.67
4	vsClemson	W27-21	18.7	32/44	238	4	0	85.0	-22	0	0.09
5	vsLouisiana Tech	W34-27	-11.6	22/36	251	2	0	54.7	-8	0	0.17
7	@Boston College	W33-7	0.9	16/24	251	3	0	87.9	1	0	0.72
8	@Miami	L30-31	10.8	24/42	310	2	0	69.5	1	1	0.18
9	vsLouisville	W28-13	7.8	25/36	317	4	0	75.6	-3	0	0.63
10	@Florida State	W28-14	7.6	21/32	314	4	1	82.5	-5	0	0.57
11	@Wake Forest	L42-45	10.1	37/59	408	4	2	59.6	-2	0	0.13
12	vsSyracuse	W41-17	0.3	17/24	303	2	0	91.5	1	0	0.58
13	vsNorth Carolina	W34-30	6.4	19/30	247	4	0	45.7	-30	0	0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.9%

Passing plays

97.2%

Rushing plays

8.4%

Standard downs

50.8%

Passing downs

75.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.