#9Desmond Ridder

QB·Cincinnati·2021 20208.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Desmond Ridder is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Cincinnati. Desmond's 2020 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 371 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Desmond Ridder's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

186/281 Comp/Att2296 Pass yards19 Pass TD6 INT66.2% Comp %

Rushing

589 Rush yards12 Rush TD101 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency65
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency82
Clutch85

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Austin Peay.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
3	vsAustin Peay	W55-20	—	13/19	196	2	0	57	0	0.83
4	vsArmy	W24-10	2.7	18/33	258	2	1	-19	0	0.11
5	vsSouth Florida	W28-7	-11.4	16/26	143	2	3	28	0	0.06
8	@SMU	W42-13	9.2	13/21	126	1	0	179	3	0.78
9	vsMemphis	W49-10	5.7	21/26	271	3	1	41	2	0.62
10	vsHouston	W38-10	3.3	17/27	162	1	1	103	3	0.46
11	vsEast Carolina	W55-17	-11.0	24/31	327	3	0	75	1	0.59
12	@UCF	W36-33	13.6	21/32	338	2	0	57	2	0.57
16	vsTulsa	W27-24	5.6	19/29	269	1	0	83	1	0.46
1	vsGeorgia	L21-24	19.1	24/37	206	2	0	-15	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.1%

Passing plays

95.1%

Rushing plays

22.9%

Standard downs

51.8%

Passing downs

66.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.58

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Cincinnati	8.9	0.515	—	196.8
2021	Cincinnati	6.5	0.481	-0.03	243.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.