#6Darius Anderson

RB·TCU·20172.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Darius Anderson is a Explosive Back for TCU. Darius's 2017 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 130 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Darius Anderson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

768 Rush yards8 Rush TD128 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions57 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency68
Volume56
Explosiveness60
Consistency48
Receiving30

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency48th %ile · average

Key findings

▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Oklahoma (SP+ 26).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsJackson State	W63-0	—	13	67	5.2	0	1	6	0	0.13
2	@Arkansas	W28-7	2.1	15	106	7.1	1	—	—	—	0.47
3	vsSMU	W56-36	-2.9	14	89	6.4	2	—	—	—	0.32
4	@Oklahoma State	W44-31	19.1	26	160	6.2	3	4	41	0	0.47
6	vsWest Virginia	W31-24	5.6	9	43	4.8	0	—	—	—	-0.10
7	@Kansas State	W26-6	10.9	2	5	2.5	0	—	—	—	-0.46
8	vsKansas	W43-0	-14.8	12	62	5.2	0	2	2	0	-0.01
9	@Iowa State	L7-14	7.5	12	95	7.9	0	—	—	—	0.26
10	vsTexas	W24-7	10.6	18	99	5.5	1	2	8	0	0.04
11	@Oklahoma	L20-38	25.5	7	42	6.0	1	—	—	—	0.74

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.5%

Passing plays

3.2%

Rushing plays

32.6%

Standard downs

23.3%

Passing downs

10.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.24
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.