#12Connor Halliday

QB·Washington State·2014 20137.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Connor Halliday is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Washington State. Connor's 2014 season ranks in the 28th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 512 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Connor Halliday's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

354/526 Comp/Att3873 Pass yards32 Pass TD11 INT67.3% Comp %

Rushing

-131 Rush yards0 Rush TD29 Carries-4.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency28
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency77
Clutch82

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)28th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs California (SP+ -1).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsRutgers	L38-41	-1.5	40/56	532	5	1	78.2	-16	0	0.48
2	@Nevada	L13-24	-7.3	38/57	389	1	2	27.8	-22	0	0.05
3	vsPortland State	W59-21	—	41/62	544	6	2	81.5	-12	0	0.49
4	vsOregon	L31-38	24.7	43/63	436	4	0	65.6	-6	0	0.30
5	@Utah	W28-27	8.8	39/61	417	4	2	35.1	-25	0	0.07
6	vsCalifornia	L59-60	-0.6	49/70	734	6	0	89.6	17	0	0.59
7	@Stanford	L17-34	21.4	42/69	292	2	1	39.3	-56	0	0.03
9	vsArizona	L37-59	7.6	56/79	489	4	2	37.1	-11	0	0.13
10	vsUSC	L17-44	17.1	6/9	40	0	1	18.2	—	—	0.25

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

71.7%

Passing plays

89.6%

Rushing plays

7.6%

Standard downs

68.7%

Passing downs

77.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / -0.90

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Washington State	0.4	0.170	—	100.8
2014	Washington State	7.5	0.420	+0.25	212.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.