#3Chris Reynolds

QB·Charlotte·20196.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chris Reynolds is a Dual-Threat QB for Charlotte. Chris's 2019 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 439 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chris Reynolds's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

181/291 Comp/Att2564 Pass yards22 Pass TD11 INT62.2% Comp %

Rushing

767 Rush yards6 Rush TD153 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency40
Volume100
Dual-Threat88
Consistency69
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.04 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Massachusetts (SP+ -35).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsGardner-Webb	W49-28	—	14/20	136	1	1	93.2	72	2	0.55
2	@App State	L41-56	11.3	20/31	296	4	1	51.8	35	0	0.24
3	vsMassachusetts	W52-17	-34.6	10/12	155	2	0	99.0	34	0	1.04
4	@Clemson	L10-52	28.1	6/16	43	0	1	0.8	19	1	-0.58
5	vsFlorida Atlantic	L27-45	-0.6	15/28	208	3	2	39.2	-12	0	0.05
7	@Florida International	L23-48	-7.0	6/10	114	1	0	73.7	41	0	0.60
8	@Western Kentucky	L14-30	1.7	15/29	200	1	1	50.3	37	0	0.22
9	vsNorth Texas	W39-38	-6.1	24/32	336	3	0	97.0	96	1	0.80
10	vsMiddle Tennessee	W34-20	-11.3	14/21	192	1	0	—	103	1	0.53
11	@UTEP	W28-21	-25.6	24/35	354	2	1	—	91	0	0.31
13	vsMarshall	W24-13	-1.9	9/21	166	1	2	—	145	1	0.19
14	@Old Dominion	W38-22	-24.4	9/12	166	2	1	—	96	0	0.69
1	vsBuffalo	L9-31	-2.0	15/24	198	1	1	—	10	0	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.0%

Passing plays

90.6%

Rushing plays

27.0%

Standard downs

46.9%

Passing downs

63.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 39 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.