#16Charlie Brewer

QB·Baylor·2019 20186.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Charlie Brewer is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Baylor. Charlie's 2018 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 495 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Charlie Brewer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

240/389 Comp/Att3024 Pass yards19 Pass TD9 INT61.7% Comp %

Rushing

369 Rush yards7 Rush TD132 Carries2.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency18
Volume100
Dual-Threat97
Consistency71
Clutch99

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.72 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Oklahoma State (SP+ 14).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAbilene Christian	W55-27	—	8/15	138	0	1	—	15	0	0.18
2	@UTSA	W37-20	-22.1	23/34	328	3	0	—	22	0	0.60
3	vsDuke	L27-40	5.0	14/26	175	0	0	—	32	2	0.17
4	vsKansas	W26-7	-10.0	19/27	221	3	0	—	56	0	0.46
5	@Oklahoma	L33-66	24.9	38/60	400	2	0	—	-20	1	0.29
6	vsKansas State	W37-34	-0.5	30/44	296	1	1	—	10	1	0.31
7	@Texas	L17-23	11.3	20/38	245	1	1	—	17	0	0.25
9	@West Virginia	L14-58	13.2	1/8	22	0	3	—	-15	0	-0.48
10	vsOklahoma State	W35-31	13.8	4/8	56	2	0	—	28	0	0.72
11	@Iowa State	L14-28	7.9	26/36	288	2	0	—	72	0	0.47
12	vsTCU	L9-16	6.9	14/29	163	0	1	48.2	54	1	0.01
13	vsTexas Tech	W35-24	8.7	22/30	308	3	1	—	-11	1	0.52
1	vsVanderbilt	W45-38	7.6	21/34	384	2	1	—	109	1	0.57

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.2%

Passing plays

80.7%

Rushing plays

22.1%

Standard downs

45.7%

Passing downs

64.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Baylor	6.8	0.432	—	229.3
2019	Baylor	5.2	0.410	-0.02	215.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.