#4Chandler Morris

QB·Virginia·2025 20244.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chandler Morris is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Virginia. Chandler's 2025 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 486 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chandler Morris's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

282/436 Comp/Att3000 Pass yards16 Pass TD9 INT64.7% Comp %

Rushing

245 Rush yards5 Rush TD64 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts41 Punt yards41.0 Yards/punt41 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency18
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency70
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Stanford (SP+ -12).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCoastal Carolina	W48-7	-15.1	19/27	264	2	0	67.3	50	0	0.72
2	@NC State	L31-35	4.8	30/43	257	1	1	80.6	56	0	0.28
3	vsWilliam & Mary	W55-16	—	13/19	149	1	0	34.4	7	0	0.41
4	vsStanford	W48-20	-11.8	23/31	380	4	0	96.2	19	1	0.78
5	vsFlorida State	W46-38	7.2	26/35	229	2	3	92.6	37	3	0.57
6	@Louisville	W30-27	12.4	19/31	149	1	0	50.2	7	0	-0.12
8	vsWashington State	W22-20	3.8	15/25	179	0	0	35.8	15	0	0.10
9	@North Carolina	W17-16	-6.6	20/35	200	1	1	14.6	-21	0	-0.12
10	@California	W31-21	-3.2	24/36	262	0	0	73.2	38	0	0.33
11	vsWake Forest	L9-16	5.7	3/6	19	0	0	23.3	6	0	-0.04
12	@Duke	W34-17	6.6	23/35	316	2	2	84.7	9	0	0.40
14	vsVirginia Tech	W27-7	-10.1	21/35	182	0	0	75.2	25	1	0.26
15	vsDuke	L20-27	6.6	21/40	216	2	2	28.6	-3	0	0.09
20	vsMissouri	W13-7	14.4	25/38	198	0	0	78.2	0	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.1%

Passing plays

88.6%

Rushing plays

9.2%

Standard downs

40.2%

Passing downs

61.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.67

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 — 2025 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2024	North Texas	6.2	0.412	—	219.0
2025	Virginia	4.7	0.338	-0.07	162.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.