#4Chandler Morris

QB·North Texas·2025 20246.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chandler Morris is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for North Texas. Chandler's 2024 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 528 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chandler Morris's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

322/509 Comp/Att3774 Pass yards31 Pass TD12 INT63.3% Comp %

Rushing

242 Rush yards4 Rush TD60 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency15
Volume100
Dual-Threat90
Consistency73
Clutch75

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.91 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs South Alabama (SP+ 3).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@South Alabama	W52-38	2.8	32/41	415	3	0	90.3	17	2	0.91
2	vsStephen F. Austin	W35-20	—	26/44	322	4	3	22.3	-7	0	0.20
3	@Texas Tech	L21-66	4.3	15/27	162	2	3	8.8	9	0	0.06
4	vsWyoming	W44-17	-13.6	28/41	305	2	0	73.4	22	0	0.41
5	vsTulsa	W52-20	-20.6	22/34	439	5	0	46.4	5	0	0.77
7	@Florida Atlantic	W41-37	-12.7	27/45	336	4	1	61.5	23	0	0.33
8	@Memphis	L44-52	9.6	36/61	445	3	1	73.7	71	1	0.30
9	vsTulane	L37-45	5.7	38/55	449	3	0	74.1	20	1	0.42
11	vsArmy	L3-14	9.2	24/37	214	0	2	36.0	-3	0	-0.10
12	@UTSA	L27-48	2.2	21/36	241	1	2	28.4	29	0	-0.02
13	vsEast Carolina	L28-40	-1.0	32/48	266	3	0	58.2	39	0	0.16
14	@Temple	W24-17	-20.3	21/40	180	1	0	34.9	17	0	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.6%

Passing plays

94.3%

Rushing plays

14.9%

Standard downs

56.3%

Passing downs

75.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 — 2025 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2024	North Texas	6.2	0.412	—	219.0
2025	Virginia	4.7	0.338	-0.07	162.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.