#5Caullin Lacy

WR·Louisville·2025

Caullin Lacy is a Versatile WR for Louisville. Caullin's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 96 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Caullin Lacy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

53 Rush yards0 Rush TD15 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

60 Receptions635 Rec yards2 Rec TD10.6 Yards/rec

Returns

12 Kick returns251 KR yards0 KR TD25 Punt returns454 PR yards2 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume33
Explosiveness24
Consistency43
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency43th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.08 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.02 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Clemson (SP+ 10).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Kentucky	W51-17	—	4	62	15.5	0	32	0.44
2	vsJames Madison	W28-14	12.3	2	12	6.0	0	8	-0.25
4	vsBowling Green	W40-17	-12.6	8	97	12.1	0	25	0.52
5	@Pittsburgh	W34-27	8.4	8	95	11.9	0	37	0.14
6	vsVirginia	L27-30	11.1	5	21	4.2	0	14	-0.06
8	@Miami	W24-21	20.7	5	39	7.8	0	12	0.01
9	vsBoston College	W38-24	-8.5	6	43	7.2	1	22	0.39
10	@Virginia Tech	W28-16	-10.1	6	53	8.8	1	24	0.23
11	vsCalifornia	L26-29	-3.2	4	60	15.0	0	40	0.30
12	vsClemson	L19-20	9.5	4	60	15.0	0	48	1.02
13	@SMU	L6-38	13.4	2	5	2.5	0	6	-0.30
14	vsKentucky	W41-0	1.8	—	—	—	—	—	-0.16
20	vsToledo	W27-22	6.0	6	88	14.7	0	28	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.4%

Passing plays

19.1%

Rushing plays

3.8%

Standard downs

10.1%

Passing downs

14.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / -0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).