#33Carson Steele

RB·UCLA·2023 2022

Carson Steele is a Committee Back for UCLA. Carson's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 177 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carson Steele's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

846 Rush yards6 Rush TD167 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions163 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume60
Explosiveness42
Consistency0
Receiving35

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.40 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.07 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs North Carolina Central.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCoastal Carolina	W27-13	-1.2	13	76	5.8	0	4	20	1	0.20
2	@San Diego State	W35-10	-10.3	12	84	7.0	1	1	5	0	0.42
3	vsNorth Carolina Central	W59-7	—	5	83	16.6	1	2	25	0	1.07
4	@Utah	L7-14	8.5	11	29	2.6	0	1	12	0	-0.31
6	vsWashington State	W25-17	4.9	30	140	4.7	0	1	2	0	0.07
7	@Oregon State	L24-36	12.6	22	110	5.0	1	—	—	—	0.30
8	@Stanford	W42-7	-11.9	20	76	3.8	3	—	—	—	0.19
9	vsColorado	W28-16	-4.9	11	75	6.8	0	2	14	1	-0.28
10	@Arizona	L10-27	14.1	8	38	4.8	0	2	25	0	0.23
11	vsArizona State	L7-17	-11.3	11	33	3.0	0	1	17	0	-0.81
12	@USC	W38-20	9.4	12	49	4.1	0	—	—	—	-0.14
13	vsCalifornia	L7-33	-0.1	12	53	4.4	0	3	43	0	0.16

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.1%

Passing plays

4.1%

Rushing plays

37.2%

Standard downs

24.7%

Passing downs

13.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.03
Passing downs: 0.20
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.57 / 0.02

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.