#16Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi

QB·Colorado State·2025

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is a Dual-Threat QB for Colorado State. Brayden's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 95 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

44/82 Comp/Att488 Pass yards1 Pass TD2 INT53.7% Comp %

Rushing

-3 Rush yards1 Rush TD14 Carries-0.2 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts81 Punt yards40.5 Yards/punt44 Long2 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency84
Clutch83

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Washington	L21-38	18.4	17/32	180	1	1	56.8	-6	0	0.29
2	vsNorthern Colorado	W21-17	—	13/25	132	0	1	40.1	22	1	0.34
4	vsUTSA	L16-17	3.7	14/25	176	0	0	12.6	-19	0	0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.3%

Passing plays

84.8%

Rushing plays

8.7%

Standard downs

34.4%

Passing downs

67.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).