#12Brandon Doughty

QB·Western Kentucky·2015 2014 20132.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Brandon Doughty is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Western Kentucky. Brandon's 2013 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 349 plays — a average rate for the QB. Brandon's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brandon Doughty's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

246/374 Comp/Att2857 Pass yards14 Pass TD14 INT65.8% Comp %

Rushing

-109 Rush yards0 Rush TD34 Carries-3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency45
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency81
Clutch91

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Morgan State.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
1	vsKentucky	W35-26	-2.5	27/34	271	1	0	83.7	-5	0.45
2	@Tennessee	L20-52	5.1	17/34	222	1	5	6.9	-10	0.15
3	@South Alabama	L24-31	-10.2	27/47	282	3	3	39.6	-24	0.00
4	vsMorgan State	W58-17	—	7/7	55	0	0	89.2	-7	0.74
5	vsNavy	W19-7	-0.3	25/31	198	0	1	50.7	2	0.11
6	@UL Monroe	W31-10	-26.2	24/36	370	2	1	88.9	-8	0.41
8	vsLouisiana	L20-37	-12.5	18/23	260	1	2	51.8	-14	0.40
9	vsTroy	L26-32	-14.5	29/45	387	0	0	58.6	-36	0.43
10	@Georgia State	W44-28	-32.6	15/24	206	1	1	74.7	4	0.32
11	@Army	W21-17	-24.6	16/24	199	2	1	52.6	0	0.32
13	@Texas State	W38-7	-13.7	20/32	152	0	0	35.1	-7	0.72
14	vsArkansas State	W34-31	-16.2	21/37	255	3	0	75.8	-4	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

43.0%

Passing plays

86.5%

Rushing plays

3.3%

Standard downs

37.3%

Passing downs

56.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / -0.36

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Western Kentucky	2.5	0.250	—	83.8
2014	Western Kentucky	17.8	0.620	+0.37	379.4
2015	Western Kentucky	18.2	0.690	+0.07	394.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.