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Billy Wiles
Billy Wiles

#9Billy Wiles

QB·Southern Miss·2023

Billy Wiles is a Clutch Passer for Southern Miss. Billy's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 308 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Billy Wiles's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing
158/290 Comp/Att1916 Pass yards11 Pass TD7 INT54.5% Comp %
Rushing
27 Rush yards1 Rush TD58 Carries0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency0
  • Volume100
  • Dual-Threat48
  • Consistency44
  • Clutch100
Player type
Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency44th %ile · below avg
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Alcorn State.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.630−0.63Wk 1 vs Alcorn State: +0.63 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Florida State: -0.21 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Tulane: +0.17 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Arkansas State: +0.20 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Texas State: +0.28 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Old Dominion: +0.24 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs South Alabama: -0.57 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs App State: +0.28 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs UL Monroe: +0.24 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Louisiana: +0.23 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Mississippi State: +0.27 EPA/play12
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1vsAlcorn StateW40-14—21/282673154.2300.63
2@Florida StateL13-6619.411/341540118.5-130-0.21
3vsTulaneL3-212.819/331770041.0-900.17
4@Arkansas StateL37-44-6.320/362152223.81200.20
5vsTexas StateL36-50-1.619/3525721—3010.28
6vsOld DominionL13-17-10.115/261660048.7100.24
8@South AlabamaL3-555.12/55002.5-50-0.57
9@App StateL38-483.823/412871041.5-1900.28
10vsUL MonroeW24-7-21.611/232001159.1000.24
11@LouisianaW34-310.48/13991039.0900.23
12@Mississippi StateL20-410.59/1689117.61800.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
43.0%
Passing plays
82.7%
Rushing plays
9.9%
Standard downs
37.1%
Passing downs
53.6%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.02
Passing downs
0.49
Pass / Rush EPA
0.24 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.