#5Al-Jay Henderson

RB·Buffalo·20242.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Al-Jay Henderson is a Explosive Back for Buffalo. Al-Jay's 2024 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 195 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Al-Jay Henderson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

1078 Rush yards9 Rush TD204 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions238 Rec yards1 Rec TD12.5 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns9 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume69
Explosiveness46
Consistency68
Receiving43

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Toledo (SP+ -3).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsLafayette	W30-13	—	14	36	2.6	1	—	—	—	0.04
2	@Missouri	L0-38	14.0	7	26	3.7	0	—	—	—	0.03
3	vsMassachusetts	W34-3	-21.9	5	13	2.6	0	1	1	0	-0.24
4	@Northern Illinois	W23-20	-3.5	11	56	5.1	1	2	6	0	0.27
5	@UConn	L3-47	1.5	2	4	2.0	0	—	—	—	0.15
7	vsToledo	W30-15	-2.5	18	142	7.9	0	1	6	0	0.71
8	vsWestern Michigan	L41-48	-10.2	12	97	8.1	1	4	49	0	0.63
9	@Ohio	L16-47	2.3	14	81	5.8	0	3	24	0	0.24
10	@Akron	W41-30	-17.9	18	107	5.9	1	3	22	0	0.10
12	vsBall State	W51-48	-19.8	27	126	4.7	2	2	19	0	0.40
13	@Eastern Michigan	W37-20	-13.3	25	86	3.4	1	1	75	1	0.20
14	vsKent State	W43-7	-33.0	30	185	6.2	1	—	—	—	0.20
20	vsLiberty	W26-7	0.2	21	119	5.7	1	2	36	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.3%

Passing plays

5.7%

Rushing plays

37.9%

Standard downs

27.0%

Passing downs

19.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.96 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.