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Adam Jones
Adam Jones

#11Adam Jones

WR·Arkansas State·2024

Adam Jones is a Slot Specialist WR for Arkansas State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Adam Jones's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
21 Receptions255 Rec yards3 Rec TD12.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume9
  • Explosiveness34
  • Consistency86
  • Pass-Down32
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.06 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Louisiana (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.060−2.06Wk 2 vs Tulsa: +0.66 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Michigan: +1.37 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Iowa State: +1.46 EPA/play4Wk 7 vs Texas State: +1.10 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Southern Miss: +1.13 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Troy: +1.82 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Louisiana: +2.06 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs UL Monroe: +0.24 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Old Dominion: +0.71 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsCentral ArkansasW34-31———————
2vsTulsaW28-24-20.634314.31350.66
3@MichiganL18-2810.622914.50181.37
4@Iowa StateL7-5210.32136.5081.46
7@Texas StateL9-415.411010.00101.10
8@Southern MissW44-28-25.633110.31141.13
9vsTroyW34-31-6.625326.50461.82
11@LouisianaL19-554.822110.51162.06
13vsUL MonroeW28-21-16.72157.5080.24
14vsOld DominionL32-40-6.044010.00140.71

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
3.3%
Passing plays
6.4%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
2.5%
Passing downs
5.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.18
Passing downs
1.07
Pass / Rush EPA
1.12 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.