Hurricanes at Rangers 4-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Carolina Hurricanes

▸4

New York Rangers

FinalTV FDSNSO, MSG·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Rangers 4-0. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andrei Svechnikov's goal at 19:29 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 72% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Rangers, 2.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were CAR 26, NYR 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 22 of 22 (1.000), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Igor Shesterkin stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Svechnikov (2 G, 1 A), 2. Frederik Andersen (22 saves, 1.000), 3. Sebastian Aho (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Svechnikov2 G, 1 A
★★
F. Andersen22 saves, 1.000
★★★
S. Aho1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	18	110	28	426
NYR	010	09	03	022

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

A. Svechnikov(16)
T. Hall (16), J. Kotkaniemi (15)
wristxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-0
0:56

2nd period

A. Svechnikov(17)
M. Rantanen (40), J. Blake (6)
backhandxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
2-0
19:29

3rd period

S. Aho(17)
A. Svechnikov (20)
wristxG 0.17win prob +8 ptsVideo
3-0
1:04
S. Jarvis(19)
J. Martinook (16)
snapxG 0.17win prob +2 ptsVideo
4-0
2:30

Penalties

11 PIM·

9 PIM

1st

6:02Riley Stillman · Fightingdrawn by Sam Carrick5 min
6:02Sam Carrick · Fightingdrawn by Riley Stillman5 min
7:58Jordan Martinook · Slashingdrawn by Filip Chytil2 min
15:11Alexis Lafrenière · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min

2nd

9:42Seth Jarvis · Interferencedrawn by Will Borgen2 min
17:19Ryan Lindgren · Cross checkingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

3rd

8:09Sebastian Aho · Hookingdrawn by Mika Zibanejad2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYR

Biggest swing: Andrei Svechnikov, 2nd 19:29 — CAR 72% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.2 xG · 38 att NYR

0 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.24 G
All situations: 0 G2.5; 2.04 G
Even strength: 0 G1.5; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G1.0; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

44%56%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.17 – 2.49

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 22; 56%
Faceoffs: 44%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 11
Penalty minutes: 9; 11
Hits: 21; 15
Blocked shots: 7; 18
Giveaways: 15; 5
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Carolina Hurricanes skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
20S. AhoC	1	0	1	+2	2	0.36	0	1	2	55	21:33
8B. BurnsD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	0	2	0	—	20:37
5J. ChatfieldD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	19:06
96M. RantanenR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.42	1	0	0	—	18:42
74J. SlavinD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	0	3	0	—	18:37
71T. HallL	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	18:18
7D. OrlovD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	18:14
53J. BlakeR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	2	0	—	17:57
37A. SvechnikovR	2	1	3	+3	4	0.49	1	0	0	—	17:51
26S. WalkerD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.15	0	2	0	—	17:12
24S. JarvisR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.21	0	2	2	—	17:04
4S. GostisbehereD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	16:04
48J. MartinookL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.11	3	1	2	—	14:32
11J. StaalC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	3	1	0	60	14:29
82J. KotkaniemiC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	63	13:11
50E. RobinsonL	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	0	0	0	—	12:19
54J. JaaskaL	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	1	0	0	56	10:34
61R. StillmanD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	5	—	07:40

Carolina Hurricanes goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31F. Andersen(W)	22	22	0	1.000	2.52	+2.52	60:00

Season series

CAR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score