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Islanders at Senators
NHL

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸4
Ottawa Senators
2
FinalTV MSGSN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Palmieri's goal at 13:46 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 56% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.7 to 2.4; shots on goal were NYI 13, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 9 of 12 (.750), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ilya Sorokin (29 saves, .935), 2. Tim Stützle (2 A), 3. Kyle Palmieri (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    I. Sorokin29 saves, .935
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle2 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    K. Palmieri1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI250523413
OTTOTT11217012231

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    A. Gaudette(13)
    N. Gregor (2), T. Stützle (23)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:37
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(12)PPG
    N. Dobson (12), K. Palmieri (11)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-1
    12:27
  3. NYI
    K. MacLean(2)
    D. Cholowski (5), P. Engvall (3)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    14:48

2nd period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(12)PPG
    D. Batherson (19), T. Stützle (24)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-2
    0:37

3rd period

  1. NYI
    K. Palmieri(11)PPG
    A. Lee (11), N. Dobson (13)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +30 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:46
  2. NYI
    B. Horvat(7)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.46win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:09

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

1st

  • 12:09OTTClaude Giroux · High stickingdrawn by Maxim Tsyplakov2 min
  • 19:22NYIKyle Palmieri · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Kleven2 min

2nd

  • 12:34NYIKyle MacLean · High stickingdrawn by Tyler Kleven2 min

3rd

  • 7:16NYIOliver Wahlstrom · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 13:00OTTJosh Norris · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNYI goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Palmieri, 3rd 13:46 — NYI 56% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.18A. Gaudette · Goal · xG 0.18M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.18T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.18N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.14S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.14M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.12M. Amadio · Missed · xG 0.12S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.12J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.11A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.09M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.09S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.06S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.06T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.04T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.04T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.04T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.04D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.04T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.03J. Bernard-Docker · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.02N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.02T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.02M. Amadio · Missed · xG 0.02T. Kleven · Missed · xG 0.02D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.00N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.00J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.00J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.00B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 2.7 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsOTT
2.43 G
All situations
2 G2.7
0.61 G
Even strength
1 G2.2
0.52 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI21%79%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.13 – 2.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsOTT
13
Shots on goal
31
37%
Faceoffs
63%
2/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
25
Hits
16
21
Blocked shots
10
15
Giveaways
12
2
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
28A. RomanovD000010.03350—24:56
6R. PulockD000000.01130—22:39
14B. HorvatC101+110.464006721:58
24S. MayfieldD000+200.00120—19:50
29B. NelsonC000010.021102519:16
21K. PalmieriC112010.10002019:03
44J. PageauC000+110.350203318:58
7M. TsyplakovR000+110.03000—18:43
8N. DobsonD022020.16120—18:40
25D. CholowskiD011+100.00110—16:53
27A. LeeL112020.39010—16:34
36I. GeorgeD000-100.01020—16:04
10S. HolmstromR000-100.05100—12:46
18P. EngvallL011+100.44110—10:53
53C. CizikasC000-100.006004710:36
26O. WahlstromR000-110.01102—09:30
32K. MacLeanC101+110.132021309:08
17M. MartinL000+110.17210—08:18
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(W)31292.9352.68+0.6860:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).