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Islanders at Senators
NHL

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸4
Ottawa Senators
2
FinalTV MSGSN2, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 4-2. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anders Lee's goal at 15:49 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.2, OTT 2.4; shots on goal were NYI 25, OTT 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Anton Forsberg stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Lee (1 G, 1 A), 2. Thomas Chabot (1 A), 3. Bo Horvat (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    A. Lee1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    B. Horvat1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI0821126425
OTTOTT05015210230

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(4)
    B. Horvat (6), R. Pulock (5)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +22 ptsVideo
    1-0
    15:49
  2. NYI
    J. Pageau(4)
    B. Horvat (7), A. Lee (5)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-0
    18:22

3rd period

  1. NYI
    O. Wahlstrom(1)
    M. Martin (1), K. MacLean (1)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +7 ptsVideo
    3-0
    2:41
  2. OTT
    N. Jensen(1)
    T. Chabot (6), T. Stützle (12)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-1
    7:43
  3. OTT
    D. Batherson(6)PPG
    T. Stützle (13), J. Sanderson (8)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-2
    14:27
  4. NYI
    B. Horvat(5)EN
    S. Mayfield (2)
    wristxG 0.52win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:50

Penalties

NYI 8 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:14OTTNoah Gregor · High stickingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min
  • 11:11NYIGrant Hutton · Holdingdrawn by Zack MacEwen2 min
  • 16:04OTTJake Sanderson · High stickingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 16:50NYISimon Holmstrom · Trippingdrawn by Nick Jensen2 min

3rd

  • 13:35NYIMaxim Tsyplakov · Boardingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 14:58NYIBrock Nelson · Hookingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 14:58OTTJosh Norris · Embellishment2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNYI goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Anders Lee, 2nd 15:49 — NYI 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.22Z. MacEwen · On goal · xG 0.21T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.16J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.15N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.12D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.12C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.11D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Ostapchuk · On goal · xG 0.07D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07N. Jensen · Goal · xG 0.06T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.06N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.06J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.06T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.06A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.06J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.06N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.05T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.05C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.05A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.05T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.05R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.04R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.04Z. MacEwen · On goal · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kleven · Missed · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 2.4 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsOTT
2.23 G
All situations
2 G2.4
1.73 G
Even strength
1 G1.9
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI36%64%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.70 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsOTT
25
Shots on goal
30
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/2
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
31
22
Blocked shots
15
17
Giveaways
21
4
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8N. DobsonD000030.05110—28:14
6R. PulockD011+200.02140—24:44
36I. GeorgeD000-100.00040—23:59
24S. MayfieldD011+400.00420—22:35
21K. PalmieriC000020.09010019:03
14B. HorvatC123+230.643005518:10
29B. NelsonC000030.470025817:42
27A. LeeL112+230.31100—17:14
44J. PageauC101+230.141106417:12
7M. TsyplakovR000000.00502—16:01
10S. HolmstromR000030.31012—15:52
53C. CizikasC000000.00130015:49
18P. EngvallL000030.09010—14:05
34G. HuttonD000000.00122—10:15
32K. MacLeanC011+100.021004009:42
26O. WahlstromR101+110.08000—08:58
25D. CholowskiD000+110.01010—07:59
17M. MartinL011+100.00110—05:34
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)30282.9332.44+0.4460:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).