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Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers

FinalTV BSFL, TSN5·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Ottawa Senators 2-0. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Cousins's goal at 14:48 of the first period, which took the Panthers' chances from 67% to 82%. Expected goals were close — OTT 2.3, FLA 2.5; shots on goal were OTT 26, FLA 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Joonas Korpisalo stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Anthony Stolarz stopped 26 of 26 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Stolarz (26 saves, 1.000), 2. Nick Cousins (1 G), 3. Anton Lundell (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    A. Stolarz26 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    FLA
    N. Cousins1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    A. Lundell1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT01005011026
FLAFLA21203015230

Scoring

2 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    A. Lundell(12)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    12:02
  2. FLA
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    14:48

Penalties

OTT 20 PIM·FLA 16 PIM

1st

  • 2:20OTTZack MacEwen · Fightingdrawn by Jonah Gadjovich5 min
  • 2:20FLAJonah Gadjovich · Fightingdrawn by Zack MacEwen5 min
  • 6:51FLANiko Mikkola · Fightingdrawn by Ridly Greig5 min
  • 6:51OTTRidly Greig · Roughingdrawn by Niko Mikkola2 min
  • 6:51OTTRidly Greig · Fightingdrawn by Niko Mikkola5 min
  • 10:17OTTArtem Zub · High stickingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 12:13FLADmitry Kulikov · Interferencedrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 18:04FLAJosh Mahura · Trippingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min

2nd

  • 17:09OTTErik Brannstrom · Roughingdrawn by Anton Lundell2 min

3rd

  • 0:27FLAEvan Rodrigues · High stickingdrawn by Mark Kastelic2 min
  • 12:38OTTParker Kelly · Hookingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 17:58OTTBrady Tkachuk · High stickingdrawn by Gustav Forsling2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalOTT goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Nick Cousins, 1st 14:48 — FLA 67% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.27S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.20N. Cousins · Goal · xG 0.15N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.15E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.12E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.11M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.09V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.09E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.09E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.09A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.08S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.08G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lundell · Goal · xG 0.07A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.04B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.04S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.03V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kulikov · Missed · xG 0.02N. Mikkola · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01U. Balinskis · Missed · xG 0.01N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.00E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.00S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.00S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA2 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsFLA
2.30 G
All situations
2 G2.5
1.40 G
Even strength
1 G0.7
0.70 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT48%52%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.40

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsFLA
26
Shots on goal
30
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/3
Power play
1/5
20
Penalty minutes
16
44
Hits
31
23
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
9
9
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000030.22010—23:16
85J. SandersonD000-110.00230—22:41
6J. ChychrunD000020.18230—22:06
28C. GirouxR000000.081106721:47
57S. PintoC000020.171205320:06
2A. ZubD000-110.02132—19:00
7B. TkachukL000040.372126418:40
19D. BathersonR000030.34200—18:15
71R. GreigC000020.195075017:46
26E. BrannstromD000010.06242—17:13
21M. JosephR000-110.11400—16:58
24J. Bernard-DockerD000000.02120—16:06
27P. KellyC000010.08212014:00
14B. KatchoukL000-100.00300—11:46
12M. KastelicC000-130.364103311:35
13J. SmejkalL000010.043105007:33
17Z. MacEwenR000010.09405—06:27
20B. ImamaL000000.00500—06:13
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70J. Korpisalo(L)30282.9332.47+0.4758:47

Season series

FLA leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).