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Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators

FinalTV BSFL, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Ottawa Senators 6-0. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dmitry Kulikov's goal at 1:37 of the first period, which took the Panthers' chances from 58% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.5 to 2.3; shots on goal were FLA 31, OTT 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 30 (1.000), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 12 of 14 (.857), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sergei Bobrovsky (30 saves, 1.000), 2. Matthew Tkachuk (1 G, 2 A), 3. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky30 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    FLA
    M. Tkachuk1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA21331117631
OTTOTT01406010030

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    snapxG 0.16win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:02
  2. FLA
    slapxG 0.02win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    1:37

2nd period

  1. FLA
    snapxG 0.02win prob +11 ptsVideo
    3-0
    2:35
  2. FLA
    wristxG 0.11win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-0
    4:19
  3. FLA
    wristxG 0.07win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-0
    17:56

3rd period

  1. FLA
    M. Tkachuk(24)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.13Video
    6-0
    3:54

Penalties

FLA 14 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:46FLASteven Lorentz · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:32FLARyan Lomberg · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 11:32OTTParker Kelly · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg2 min
  • 11:32FLARyan Lomberg · Roughingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 16:21FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson · Interferencedrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 18:52FLANick Cousins · Trippingdrawn by Mark Kastelic2 min
  • 20:00OTTRidly Greig · High stickingdrawn by Anton Lundell2 min

2nd

  • 11:02FLAserved by N. Cousins · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 3:18OTTShane Pinto · High stickingdrawn by Josh Mahura2 min
  • 8:30FLAEvan Rodrigues · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalFLA goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Dmitry Kulikov, 1st 1:37 — FLA 58% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.28B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.20D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.19P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.15S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.14R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.12D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.11T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.10D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.08S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.08C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.05C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05B. Katchouk · On goal · xG 0.04D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.04T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.03P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.02M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.02S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.02P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.02D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.01B. Katchouk · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01B. Katchouk · On goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.00B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT0 G · 2.5 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsOTT
2.36 G
All situations
0 G2.5
1.95 G
Even strength
0 G1.1
0.31 G
Power play
0 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA47%53%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.23 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsOTT
31
Shots on goal
30
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/2
Power play
0/6
14
Penalty minutes
6
34
Hits
26
14
Blocked shots
16
8
Giveaways
14
10
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77N. MikkolaD000+200.00500—22:27
42G. ForslingD000+150.20320—21:30
7D. KulikovD101+310.02010—20:31
62B. MontourD000+130.14120—19:59
91O. Ekman-LarssonD000+120.06202—18:44
82K. StenlundC000020.113102016:38
27E. LuostarinenC022+230.26200016:30
18S. LorentzC000000.006021715:48
16A. BarkovC022+110.191005515:45
13S. ReinhartC112+110.071106715:42
15A. LundellC101+240.301008915:37
28J. MahuraD011+200.00240—15:28
19M. TkachukL123+210.25300—12:56
9S. BennettC112+210.112002912:34
21N. CousinsC112+330.34122012:20
17E. RodriguesC011+120.07002012:17
10V. TarasenkoR011+110.07110—12:10
94R. LombergL000010.06004—11:04
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)303001.0002.51+2.5160:00

Season series

FLA leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).