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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
4
Colorado Avalanche
▸7
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 7-4. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Avalanche led 5-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yakov Trenin's goal at 19:31 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.2 to 2.4; shots on goal were NSH 35, COL 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Kevin Lankinen stopped 35 of 41 (.854), 2.2 goals below expected; Justus Annunen stopped 22 of 22 (1.000), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (1 G, 2 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 2 A), 3. Justus Annunen (22 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    J. Annunen22 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH31211409435
COLCOL216312214742

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(9)
    G. Nyquist (46), M. McCarron (10)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:41
  2. COL
    J. Drouin(15)
    N. MacKinnon (79), M. Rantanen (59)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:25
  3. NSH
    M. Jankowski(6)
    T. Novak (25)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    13:02
  4. NSH
    D. Fabbro(3)
    J. Zucker (18), K. Sherwood (14)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-1
    13:43
  5. COL
    C. Mittelstadt(18)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (80), C. Makar (61)
    pokexG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-2
    16:11

2nd period

  1. NSH
    G. Nyquist(22)
    S. Stastney (1), F. Forsberg (43)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    0:57
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(13)PPG
    C. Makar (62), J. Drouin (33)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    4-3
    5:43
  3. COL
    C. Makar(19)PPG
    M. Rantanen (60), Z. Parise (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +21 ptsVideo
    4-4
    18:25
  4. COL
    Y. Trenin(12)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.17win prob +23 ptsVideo
    4-5
    19:31

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(46)
    J. Manson (16), D. Toews (33)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-6
    3:38
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(47)EN
    M. Rantanen (61)
    backhandxG 0.40win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-7
    16:10

Penalties

NSH 13 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 9:16COLNathan MacKinnon · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Kevin Lankinen2 min
  • 10:08COLMiles Wood · Trippingdrawn by Tommy Novak2 min
  • 10:34NSHRyan O'Reilly · Hookingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 15:54NSHKiefer Sherwood · Slashingdrawn by Alexandar Georgiev2 min

2nd

  • 0:57COLAlexandar Georgiev · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 3:11NSHRyan McDonagh · Match penaltydrawn by Ross Colton5 min
  • 14:34COLMiles Wood · Slashingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 16:44NSHColton Sissons · Hookingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min

3rd

  • 6:54NSHLuke Schenn · Hookingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min
  • 18:06COLArtturi Lehkonen · Slashingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Yakov Trenin, 2nd 19:31 — COL 53% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.40S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.20N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.20M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.19Y. Trenin · Goal · xG 0.17M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.17C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.17Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.15C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.14C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.13S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.13J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.12C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.12Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.10J. Drouin · Goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.10R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.09M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.09J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.09J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.06J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.05S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.05J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00
COL7 G · 4.2 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
2.44 G
All situations
6 G4.2
2.14 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.20 G
Power play
3 G1.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH28%72%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 3.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
35
Shots on goal
42
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/5
Power play
3/6
23
Penalty minutes
10
21
Hits
25
21
Blocked shots
18
2
Giveaways
8
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000-240.24050—29:45
24S. StastneyD011+300.03020—19:53
9F. ForsbergL011-160.37110—19:27
14G. NyquistR112010.0700010019:13
90R. O'ReillyC000-220.220023818:44
57D. FabbroD101-260.12110—18:18
2L. SchennD000+200.00812—17:54
3J. LauzonD000000.00530—17:18
77L. EvangelistaR000+120.14010—16:21
82T. NovakC011030.320203315:40
10C. SissonsC000-120.212125015:21
36C. SmithR101-110.12200—13:52
16J. ZuckerL011+120.02000—12:26
8C. GlassC000+120.070102512:24
17M. JankowskiL101+120.380105712:19
44K. SherwoodL011-110.05112—11:18
47M. McCarronC011010.031007310:55
27R. McDonaghD000000.000115—08:23
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32K. Lankinen(L)41356.8543.83-2.1759:31

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).