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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Nashville Predators
▸4
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yakov Trenin's goal at 19:38 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 98%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were COL 29, NSH 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 0.7 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (2 G), 2. Yakov Trenin (1 G), 3. Jeremy Lauzon (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg2 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    Y. Trenin1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Lauzon1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL1821506329
NSHNSH11016214430

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Cogliano(3)SHG
    V. Nichushkin (8), C. Makar (21)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-0
    14:00
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(8)
    C. Glass (1), P. Tomasino (3)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:42

2nd period

  1. NSH
    J. Lauzon(1)
    G. Nyquist (9), R. O'Reilly (8)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:56
  2. COL
    D. Toews(3)
    N. MacKinnon (15), C. Makar (22)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    8:55
  3. COL
    V. Nichushkin(7)PPG
    C. Makar (23), N. MacKinnon (16)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:33

3rd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(9)
    G. Nyquist (10), C. Sissons (3)
    batxG 0.24win prob +46 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:22
  2. NSH
    Y. Trenin(2)
    C. Smith (2)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +46 ptsVideo
    3-4
    19:38

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·NSH 10 PIM

1st

  • 1:13NSHGustav Nyquist · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 13:42COLMiles Wood · Roughingdrawn by Cole Smith2 min
  • 14:48NSHTyson Barrie · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 15:30COLRoss Colton · Slashingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 17:12NSHRoman Josi · Hookingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min

2nd

  • 9:54COLJack Johnson · Trippingdrawn by Juuso Parssinen2 min
  • 13:05NSHCole Smith · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 17:58NSHLiam Foudy · Trippingdrawn by Jonathan Drouin2 min

3rd

  • 13:30COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Yakov Trenin, 3rd 19:38 — NSH 51% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.29F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.24C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.22J. Parssinen · On goal · xG 0.20Y. Trenin · Goal · xG 0.18R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.18C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.17G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.15A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.13C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.13C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.11R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.11C. Glass · Missed · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.10G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09J. Parssinen · On goal · xG 0.09G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.07C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.05D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03J. Lauzon · Goal · xG 0.02M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.02C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01L. Foudy · Missed · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 3.3 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
1.83 G
All situations
4 G3.3
1.11 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.41 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL26%74%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.77 – 3.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
29
Shots on goal
30
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/4
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
26
Hits
31
23
Blocked shots
10
13
Giveaways
15
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD033010.00010—25:02
96M. RantanenR000-110.1722210024:50
29N. MacKinnonC022-180.404204323:56
13V. NichushkinR112040.39110—23:42
4B. ByramD000-210.06120—23:13
7D. ToewsD101020.07020—21:50
42J. MansonD000010.02210—18:07
3J. JohnsonD000-210.06122—14:52
20R. ColtonC000-230.062126013:23
12R. JohansenC000010.092003012:53
25L. O'ConnorR000-210.0110010012:36
82C. JonesD000000.00320—12:09
22F. OlofssonL000010.063002912:06
94J. KivirantaL000-110.01150—11:52
90T. TatarL000010.04000—11:19
27J. DrouinL000010.0110010010:57
11A. CoglianoC101+110.23010010:08
28M. WoodL000-100.082125009:51
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(L)30264.8673.31-0.6959:14

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).