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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cody Glass's goal at 14:26 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.6 to 1.7; shots on goal were COL 26, NSH 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.3 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Cody Glass (3 G), 2. Tommy Novak (1 G, 1 A), 3. Juuse Saros (25 saves, .962).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    C. Glass3 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    T. Novak1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros25 saves, .962

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL1100907126
NSHNSH11019316535

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Glass(3)
    C. Sissons (17), R. McDonagh (18)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    15:18
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(37)
    M. Rantanen (47), D. Toews (24)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:01

2nd period

  1. NSH
    C. Glass(4)
    T. Novak (21), A. Carrier (15)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +20 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:26

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(22)PPG
    R. Josi (46), F. Forsberg (33)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    9:46
  2. NSH
    T. Novak(13)PPG
    J. Saros (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    17:32
  3. NSH
    C. Glass(5)EN
    R. McDonagh (19), M. McCarron (9)
    wristxG 0.52
    1-5
    19:07

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 9:53COLAndrew Cogliano · Cross checkingdrawn by Cody Glass2 min
  • 9:53NSHCody Glass · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

2nd

  • 8:09COLZach Parise · Holdingdrawn by Jeremy Lauzon2 min
  • 15:32NSHRoman Josi · Holdingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 9:09COLDevon Toews · High stickingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 15:39COLJack Johnson · Hookingdrawn by Gustav Nyquist2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Cody Glass, 2nd 14:26 — NSH 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Glass · Goal · xG 0.52K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.44C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.21C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.21M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.18R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.17C. Glass · Goal · xG 0.13C. Glass · Goal · xG 0.11Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.11T. Novak · Goal · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.08C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.07G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.05M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.05M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.05C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.04C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01J. Lauzon · Missed · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.01G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.01K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.00M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.00L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.00R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.00Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 3.6 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
1.71 G
All situations
4 G3.6
1.51 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.20 G
Power play
2 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL32%68%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.72 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
26
Shots on goal
35
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/1
Power play
2/3
8
Penalty minutes
4
19
Hits
20
21
Blocked shots
13
27
Giveaways
8
15
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-120.15020—23:26
4B. ByramD000-100.04230—22:02
7D. ToewsD011+130.03012—21:18
29N. MacKinnonC101-140.391005721:03
62A. LehkonenL000020.13000—20:42
96M. RantanenR011010.060004320:31
49S. GirardD000000.00020—18:40
3J. JohnsonD000-100.00052—16:32
42J. MansonD000-120.09210—16:20
27J. DrouinL000-110.32000—15:04
28M. WoodL000-210.1451010013:28
9Z. PariseL000000.00012—13:22
20R. ColtonC000-230.051003313:17
25L. O'ConnorR000-210.02110—12:56
12R. JohansenC000000.052101711:48
11A. CoglianoC000010.0902210011:41
94J. KivirantaL000020.10200—11:34
14C. WagnerR000030.083106311:08
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(L)34304.8822.66-1.3458:38

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).