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Avalanche at Flames
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
Calgary Flames
2
FinalTV ALT, TVAS·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Calgary Flames 6-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Avalanche led 6-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 5:50 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.5 to 1.5; shots on goal were COL 38, CGY 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 25 of 27 (.926); Dan Vladar stopped 29 of 35 (.829), 3.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (2 G, 2 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Valeri Nichushkin (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL11951603638
CGYCGY2901008227

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(32)PPG
    V. Nichushkin (21), N. MacKinnon (72)
    wristxG 0.54win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:05
  2. CGY
    D. Miromanov(1)
    N. Kadri (34), M. Pospisil (10)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:24
  3. CGY
    W. Duehr(2)
    J. Huberdeau (32), B. Pachal (2)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    6:46

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Manson(7)
    S. Walker (17), A. Cogliano (13)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:52
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(41)
    V. Nichushkin (22), M. Rantanen (54)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-2
    5:50
  3. COL
    V. Nichushkin(24)
    M. Rantanen (55), D. Toews (27)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    7:53
  4. COL
    C. Mittelstadt(15)
    B. Duhaime (5), D. Toews (28)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +9 ptsVideo
    5-2
    14:10
  5. COL
    M. Rantanen(33)
    C. Makar (54)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +3 ptsVideo
    6-2
    19:14

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·CGY 8 PIM

1st

  • 1:13CGYMartin Pospisil · Slashingdrawn by Justus Annunen2 min
  • 3:35CGYNazem Kadri · High stickingdrawn by Joel Kiviranta2 min
  • 16:51COLJosh Manson · High stickingdrawn by Yegor Sharangovich2 min

2nd

  • 1:58CGYBrayden Pachal · Trippingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 10:23CGYJonathan Huberdeau · Trippingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 19:26COLMiles Wood · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 1:37COLserved by F. Olofsson · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalCOL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd 5:50 — COL 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.15D. Miromanov · On goal · xG 0.12M. Pospisil · Missed · xG 0.10J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.10B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.10J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.08M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.07Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.07W. Duehr · Goal · xG 0.07M. Pospisil · On goal · xG 0.07J. Pelletier · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.05D. Hunt · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.03D. Miromanov · Goal · xG 0.03M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.03R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Miromanov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.02K. Rooney · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pachal · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pachal · Missed · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01D. Miromanov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.01D. Miromanov · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Miromanov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01D. Miromanov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pachal · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pachal · On goal · xG 0.00D. Miromanov · On goal · xG 0.00O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY2 G · 1.5 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsCGY
2.56 G
All situations
2 G1.5
1.65 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.91 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL69%31%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 1.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsCGY
38
Shots on goal
27
63%
Faceoffs
37%
1/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
24
Hits
19
15
Blocked shots
19
14
Giveaways
18
10
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011+420.24000—23:42
13V. NichushkinR123+340.29100—21:05
96M. RantanenR224+320.580105620:31
26S. WalkerD011080.18140—19:04
42J. MansonD101010.05312—18:48
7D. ToewsD022+320.05110—18:40
49S. GirardD000-110.02030—18:16
29N. MacKinnonC112+350.340006517:57
27J. DrouinL000+110.01000—16:48
28M. WoodL000030.18102—16:34
3J. JohnsonD000000.01000—16:12
73Y. TreninC000010.003205415:22
37C. MittelstadtC101+120.210008214:40
20R. ColtonC000-110.042106014:12
12B. DuhaimeL011+220.13600—13:54
11A. CoglianoC011-120.091005011:02
94J. KivirantaL000-100.00210—09:29
22F. OlofssonL000-110.013107007:53
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Annunen(W)27252.9261.52-0.4859:57

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).