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Flames at Avalanche
NHL

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
FinalTV ALT, SNW·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Calgary Flames 3-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 12:37 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 72% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.2 to 2.0; shots on goal were CGY 30, COL 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Dan Vladar stopped 21 of 24 (.875); Ivan Prosvetov stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Johansen (1 G), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Ivan Prosvetov (29 saves, .967).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    R. Johansen1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    I. Prosvetov29 saves, .967

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY04111015130
COLCOL1102806324

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    J. Drouin(3)PPG
    M. Rantanen (14), N. MacKinnon (19)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    6:31

2nd period

  1. COL
    R. Johansen(7)
    Unassisted
    wrap-aroundxG 0.22win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    10:10
  2. CGY
    M. Backlund(4)
    J. Huberdeau (9), B. Coleman (6)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    12:03
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(7)
    V. Nichushkin (10), C. Makar (25)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    12:37

Penalties

CGY 10 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 1:16COLRyan Johansen · Slashingdrawn by Connor Zary2 min
  • 2:38CGYMacKenzie Weegar · Interferencedrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 5:03CGYBlake Coleman · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Ivan Prosvetov2 min
  • 18:58COLBowen Byram · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 3:14COLserved by T. Tatar · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 3:57CGYRasmus Andersson · Roughingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 3:57CGYMacKenzie Weegar · Roughingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 3:57COLMiles Wood · Roughingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 6:47COLRoss Colton · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
  • 19:30CGYNazem Kadri · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalCGY goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd 12:37 — COL 72% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.45R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.29R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.22R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.20R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.14J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.12R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11J. Drouin · Goal · xG 0.11L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.10R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.09T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.09L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.08J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.08D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.08R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.07F. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.05M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.03C. Jones · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.01R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.00R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 3.2 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsCOL
2.01 G
All situations
3 G3.2
1.51 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY37%63%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.97 – 2.67

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsCOL
30
Shots on goal
24
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/4
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
10
20
Hits
16
13
Blocked shots
19
2
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
19

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD000-130.19322—25:48
28E. LindholmC000-210.070105621:34
55N. HanifinD000+110.02010—21:14
11M. BacklundC101+120.252005519:32
91N. KadriC000030.090022919:15
52M. WeegarD000-120.02234—18:49
10J. HuberdeauL011020.25100—18:45
16N. ZadorovD000-120.06200—18:27
8C. TanevD000+100.01100—17:33
17Y. SharangovichC000-210.05010017:05
88A. MangiapaneL000-110.14100—16:13
20B. ColemanL011+120.09202—15:17
76M. PospisilC000020.06210014:11
47C. ZaryC000010.15000012:05
48D. GilbertD000-110.01230—12:03
63A. RuzickaC000020.180005710:45
29D. DubeC000010.13110009:07
18A. GreerL000030.21100—08:20
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
80D. Vladar(L)24213.8752.70-0.3057:59

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).