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Flames at Avalanche
NHL

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
5
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV ALT, SNW·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Calgary Flames 6-5. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Flames led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 15:30 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.4 to 2.9; shots on goal were CGY 32, COL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Dan Vladar stopped 32 of 38 (.842), 2.6 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 16 of 21 (.762), 2.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 2 A), 3. Nazem Kadri (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    N. Kadri1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY17414011532
COLCOL11528315638

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    N. Kadri(7)
    B. Coleman (10)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    13:46
  2. COL
    T. Tatar(1)
    R. Colton (6), F. Olofsson (3)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    18:14

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(8)PPG
    M. Rantanen (20), N. MacKinnon (27)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:43
  2. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(6)
    N. Kadri (13), D. Gilbert (3)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    5:14
  3. CGY
    B. Coleman(8)
    M. Backlund (8), D. Gilbert (4)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:21
  4. COL
    B. Meyers(1)
    A. Cogliano (5), S. Malinski (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:57
  5. CGY
    C. Zary(6)
    M. Weegar (10)
    batxG 0.07win prob +22 ptsVideo
    4-3
    16:19
  6. CGY
    Y. Sharangovich(7)
    N. Hanifin (9), R. Andersson (12)
    tip-inxG 0.26win prob +14 ptsVideo
    5-3
    18:34

3rd period

  1. COL
    R. Colton(8)
    J. Manson (5), B. Byram (5)
    snapxG 0.32win prob +13 ptsVideo
    5-4
    11:20
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(13)
    V. Nichushkin (12), C. Makar (28)
    backhandxG 0.29win prob +36 ptsVideo
    5-5
    13:31
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(12)
    V. Nichushkin (13), M. Rantanen (21)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +38 ptsVideo
    5-6
    15:30

Penalties

CGY 10 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 0:15CGYNoah Hanifin · Roughingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 15:35CGYMikael Backlund · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

2nd

  • 0:33CGYNoah Hanifin · Slashingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 5:51CGYIlya Solovyov · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 8:41COLMiles Wood · Holdingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 18:18COLAlexandar Georgiev · Roughingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 18:18CGYNazem Kadri · Roughingdrawn by Alexandar Georgiev2 min

3rd

  • 6:38COLValeri Nichushkin · Trippingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalCGY goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 3rd 15:30 — COL 52% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.32M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.29T. Tatar · Goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.14V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.13M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.13C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.12V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.11R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.10T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.09J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.09B. Meyers · Goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.07C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.06L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.04R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.04L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.03J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.03S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.02J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.00C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 3.4 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsCOL
2.95 G
All situations
6 G3.4
2.65 G
Even strength
5 G2.5
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY41%59%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.79 – 3.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsCOL
32
Shots on goal
38
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/2
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
22
Hits
13
31
Blocked shots
12
2
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD011040.07150—29:37
55N. HanifinD011-110.04314—25:43
52M. WeegarD011000.01460—25:08
48D. GilbertD022+220.01440—20:26
28E. LindholmC000000.111006220:23
11M. BacklundC011-130.212023319:33
17Y. SharangovichC101-130.38110018:59
91N. KadriC112050.331023317:54
88A. MangiapaneL101+230.48220—16:59
10J. HuberdeauL000000.02010—16:44
98I. SolovyovD000-110.03222—16:18
20B. ColemanL112+150.17030—15:27
47C. ZaryC101-120.16010014:19
29D. DubeC000+110.4902010014:06
18A. GreerL000010.22010—08:11
63A. RuzickaC000-100.000106006:44
76M. PospisilC000-110.19110005:43
8C. TanevD000000.00000—00:15
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
80D. Vladar(L)38326.8423.35-2.6558:21

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).