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Avalanche at Coyotes
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
4
Utah Mammoth
▸5
Final/OTTV ALT, SCRIPPS·Mullett Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-4 in overtime, Jack McBain scoring at 4:40. The Coyotes came back from 4 goals down. The Avalanche led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack McBain's goal at 4:40 of overtime, which took the Coyotes' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — COL 3.3, ARI 3.2; shots on goal were COL 24, ARI 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 1.8 goals below expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sean Durzi (1 G, 3 A), 2. Jack McBain (1 G), 3. Michael Kesselring (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ARI
    S. Durzi1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    ARI
    J. McBain1 G
  3. ★★★
    ARI
    M. Kesselring1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL163120402424
ARIARI09163715527

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(18)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (37), C. Makar (32)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    18:16

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Drouin(5)
    R. Colton (9), D. Toews (15)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    1:04
  2. COL
    L. O'Connor(5)
    J. Manson (6), B. Byram (6)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-0
    7:56
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(19)PPG
    M. Rantanen (26), C. Makar (33)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-0
    13:26
  4. ARI
    L. Crouse(15)
    N. Bjugstad (15), M. Maccelli (19)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-1
    16:31

3rd period

  1. ARI
    M. Kesselring(4)
    S. Durzi (12)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-2
    3:48
  2. ARI
    J. Zucker(6)
    S. Durzi (13), L. Cooley (15)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    4-3
    7:04
  3. ARI
    S. Durzi(6)
    M. Maccelli (20), L. Crouse (7)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +42 ptsVideo
    4-4
    17:53

Overtime

  1. ARI
    J. McBain(6)
    J. Zucker (6), S. Durzi (14)
    batxG 0.54win prob +49 ptsVideo
    4-5
    4:40

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·ARI 8 PIM

1st

  • 1:45ARIJason Zucker · Roughingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 1:45COLJosh Manson · Slashingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 16:32ARIJason Zucker · Slashingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min

2nd

  • 5:45COLJosh Manson · Holdingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 11:44ARIMichael Carcone · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 12:19ARIMathew Dumba · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ARI goalCOL goalFinal: ARI 100%

Biggest swing: Jack McBain, OT 4:40 — ARI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. McBain · Goal · xG 0.54C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.21J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.16L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.15J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.15J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.14L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.14L. Crouse · Goal · xG 0.12M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.12C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.12M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.10J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.09N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.09J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.07S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.07J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.07M. Kesselring · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.06N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.05M. Kesselring · On goal · xG 0.05T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.04L. Cooley · Missed · xG 0.04M. Kesselring · Goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.04J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.03S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.03N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.03C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.03S. Durzi · Goal · xG 0.03T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.03T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.02J. Välimäki · Missed · xG 0.02J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.02M. Kesselring · Missed · xG 0.02N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.02M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.01S. Durzi · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.01J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.00
ARI5 G · 3.2 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsARI
3.34 G
All situations
5 G3.2
2.12 G
Even strength
5 G3.0
1.12 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL52%48%ARI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.23 – 3.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsARI
24
Shots on goal
27
58%
Faceoffs
42%
2/3
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
8
36
Hits
33
15
Blocked shots
9
4
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD022-350.41030—25:55
13V. NichushkinR000-300.66220—25:06
29N. MacKinnonC112-140.591105024:36
96M. RantanenR112-420.2311010024:13
7D. ToewsD011+110.10420—23:58
42J. MansonD011+110.10714—20:47
4B. ByramD011-310.02510—19:26
3J. JohnsonD000000.00100—17:43
27J. DrouinL101-130.36000—17:18
25L. O'ConnorR101+120.17410—15:39
28M. WoodL000040.37110—15:21
12R. JohansenC000-110.040004415:14
70S. MalinskiD000000.01100—14:36
11A. CoglianoC000000.00100012:55
20R. ColtonC011000.234106711:16
22F. OlofssonL000000.000006011:04
94J. KivirantaL000000.0131010010:46
56K. MacDermidL000000.00100—04:07
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(O)27225.8153.18-1.8264:40

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).